ISLAMABAD (Daily Point) — The caretaker government has revised the GDP growth rate claimed by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government in an effort to secure favor with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the Geo, the initial figure of 0.29% for the financial year 2022-23 has been adjusted to -0.17%, marking the second lowest growth in the last 50 years. The lowest growth in recent history was -1% during the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, a positive turn occurred in the ongoing fiscal year 2023-24, with the GDP growth rate standing at 2.13% in the first quarter (July-September), compared to the -2.7% observed in the last quarter of FY 2022-23.
The revised data reveals that the growth rate under the PDM-led government, initially reported at 0.29%, has now been finalized at -0.17% for the entire financial year 2022-23. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and the National Accounts Committee (NAC) played a key role in this revision, approving the introduction of Quarterly National Accounts in the country’s statistical system.
The NAC meeting, chaired by the planning secretary, not only reviewed annual GDP estimates for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 but also examined quarterly estimates from Q1 2016-17 to Q1 2023-24. As part of an extraordinary step in Pakistan’s macroeconomic statistics history, the NAC approved the industry-wise methodology for compiling quarterly GDP and the series of quarterly growth rates for various industries.
The IMF, acknowledging these changes, included the Quarterly National Accounts compilation in its structural benchmark of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). To meet this benchmark, PBS engaged with stakeholders and data providers, presenting revised GDP numbers for 2022-23 and Q1 2023-24 before the NAC, which approved the QNA series from 2016-17 to 2022-23.
The first-quarter estimates for 2023-24 were also approved, revealing a Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate of 2.13%. Agriculture exhibited a growth of 5.06%, industry 2.48%, and services 0.82%. Notably, the agriculture sector saw significant growth in important crops, driven by increased sowing areas.
The industrial sector, after facing declines in three quarters of 2022-23, reversed its trajectory in Q1 2023-24 with a growth of 2.48%. Positive growth was observed in mining and quarrying, Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), and construction indicators.
The services sector recorded an overall growth of 0.82% in Q1 2023-24, with positive contributions from wholesale and retail trade, transport, and information and communication. However, finance and insurance reported a -12.79% decline, and public administration registered -16.65% growth in Q1 2023-24.
The GDP estimates released to meet IMF benchmarks are subject to revision in the NAC meeting scheduled.
