Finally, the long-awaited General Elections are held on February 08, 2024. There were some speculations that these elections might get postponed again some days before the election date. It definitely gives a sigh of relief to the prodemocratic people who wanted their right to vote to be exercised. 

Overall, the process of casting votes remained peaceful and there were negligible grievances and complaints from the candidates during voting time. But many political parties have shown their dissatisfaction over the election outcomes and accused the election machinery of rigging.

Although election results are not a true reflection of election surveys conducted by many national and international agencies and PMLN was eyeing a simple majority, they have decided to remain defensive and be seen as accepting the election results.

The election results have showed that the majority of people of Pakistan voted for the independent candidates backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) for National Assembly followed by Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP). At the provincial level, PMLN has bagged the highest number of seats in Punjab, PPPP in Sindh and Baluchistan and PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).

Who’s Got What?

PMLN

Despite the fact that PMLN has won the highest number of seats in the National Assembly as a political party followed by the Independent Candidates backed by PTI and emerged as the single largest party in the Provincial Assembly of Punjab, their supporters seem to be frustrated with the overall standing of the party. They were expecting their party to win a simple majority comfortably in the center. It is also a major setback for the party leadership who were looking rattled as the election results started to unfold. The voters haven’t bought the narrative of PMLN performance during 2013-17, as projected in the election campaigns by Nawaz Sharif.

PMLN has yet to make major decisions which may not only decide their fate in the current political dilemma but also have implications on their political future. If PMLN decides to form a government in the center with PPPP, they will be in a vulnerable position. They will not be able to implement their plans alone and be mainly relying on PPPP. They might not be able to secure the required support on major issues including the privatization of inefficient government corporations. At the same time, PMLN will have to keep their relations with the military establishment seamless. Although they managed to steer their government with the support of PDM, PPP and military establishment after the ouster of Imran Khan, it would no longer be possible with the new mandate.  Perhaps, it is not suitable for PMLN to form a government in the center, if they have to save their remaining vote bank. 

Secondly, PMLN hasn’t desired to field Mian Nawaz Sharif for the premiership. If they did, it would be highly likely that he would have become the only prime minister who couldn’t complete his tenure successfully four times. It has made their available options limited to the Shahbaz Sharif and other senior leadership. As one can guess, they have gone with Shahbaz Sharif, as they believe that the dynastic politics still suit them and give them good control. For the same reason, not very surprisingly, PMLN has nominated Maryam Nawaz for the position of Chief Minister. This move has even shocked the diehard fans of the party and left them with little space to defend this decision.

Many people who were not in favor of Imran Khan before the 2018 elections, they were of the view that he shouldn’t be given a chance as he didn’t have relevant experience. Similarly, PMLN leadership was also relying on this narrative. Afterwards, the whole nation witnessed the drastic decisions taken by Imran Khan. It would be difficult for PMLN to justify the choice of Maryam Nawaz for Chief Minister position, while she has become a member of parliament for the very first time. It is not a rational decision of the party and it can backfire them. We have witnessed a similar type of nepotism during the election campaigns of PMLN where senior party leaders were dedicated to work in NA 119 which caused less focus on other constituencies. The workers of PMLN have already started questioning the political vision of Maryam Nawaz as she has yet to bring major success for the party. Many vintage party members including the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi had differences with her and left the party.

PPP

PPPP has got the third largest mandate in the National Assembly followed by the Independent Candidates backed by PTI and PMLN, and emerged as the single largest party in the Provincial Assembly of Sindh. Just like its previous tenure of 1.5 years with the PDM government, PPPP is playing its cards well. They were part of the last government, but they ensured that they get a small share of blame for unpopular tough decisions and poor performance.  

Bilawal Bhutto has stolen the limelight in the last General Elections 2024 and showed more political maturity than other contemporary politicians of Pakistan. He has led the campaign for its party throughout the country and portrayed him as composed and clear headed chairman of a political party. He has made the voters realize that PPPP has a more progressive approach towards the issues of the country.

It was a good political move to challenge PMLN in Lahore by contesting from one of the constituencies of Lahore. It has sent a brave and courageous image of him to the people.

Although PPPP has agreed to support PMLN in the formation of government but they have decide to remain out of the Cabinet. In return, they have asked for some key positions of President, Governors, Chairman of Senate, etc. as a part of the deal. It is yet to see if PMLN falls for their trap again. This move has castled the PMLN completely.

PPPP has beem continuously improving its image throughout the country which is also reflected in the recent election results and taken over the political space left by PMLN. One can think that they have a good future under the leadership of Bilawal Bhutto. 

PTI

The independent candidates backed by PTI have got the largest mandate in the National Assembly and Provincial Assemble of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the General Elections 2024. It can be inferred from the election results that all political parties with the support of military, judiciary, and caretaker government couldn’t defeat the popularity of PTI and their vote bank remained intact. They are standing by their party against all the odds and fortune is favoring the braves.

The supporters and fan base would keep supporting PTI under the leadership of Imran Khan, no matter whatever the circumstances. The PTI has got the mandate in KPK through the independent candidates and it is the third time in a row for them. It has built a very strong base for them which may keep existing for a long time.

Many political parties may not be very comfortable in forming an alliance with the PTI because of their involvement in the May 9 incident and possible resistance from the military establishment. Even if they fail to form a government, their existence can no longer be ignored and they will start mattering to the whole system of the country soon. You can’t resist the will of people consistently. If they succeed to form a government in the province or in the center, they may not be able to perform well as their previous record suggests but they will keep dominating the Pakistani politics.

Military establishment

The results of General Elections 2024 have caused the biggest damage to the military establishment than to any other stakeholder of Pakistan.  If the General Elections 2024 are held free and fair, it means that majority voters of Pakistan have voted against the narrative of military establishment regarding the May 9 incident. It is certainly a major challenge for the senior leadership of the military establishment of the country.

The role of the military establishment from politics can never be overstated. This time again, they claim to be apolitical, but has been relevant till date since the ouster of the Imran Khan government in 2023. They have invested heavily to promote their narrative of May 9 against PTI through social and mainstream media.

The military establishment has taken extraordinary measures to hold the people accused of May 9 incident accountable including the formation of military courts. Moreover, they have tried to disband the PTI and forced their elected members of National and Provincial assemblies, and senior leadership to change their affiliation through different tactics of exerting pressure on them.

Furthermore, many attempts were made to corner the PTI, including the recent rulings in three cases against Imran Khan just before the elections, but it couldn’t convince the people not to vote for PTI, perhaps it fueled their rage. The PTI was also stripped of the Bat symbol from the courts and it was widely criticized across the world. All these efforts against the PTI went in vain. 

All three major political parties have got the split mandate; Independents candidates (backed by PTI), PML N and PPPP. We all have heard this discussion in the corridors that the divided mandate of political parties would suit the military establishment. No one will be given a simple majority so that the institution wouldn’t have to face someone like Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan who challenge their power. This can be an ideal equation for military leadership but maybe a worst situation for the country, where some tough decisions have to be taken to save the crippled economy. 

People had high hopes before the elections but they are falling in desperation now. Weak government will not be able to resolve major issues of the country. We have yet to complete the IMF plan. This is the high time if all political parties sit together and consider making a national government in the larger interest of the country. There is a need for another charter of democracy, along with an additional charter of economy which could navigate the country on the path of prosperity which is the real demand of people. It is now or never for Pakistan.

Pakistan Zindabad!

Author is working in a Higher Education Institution of Pakistan.

For feedback: saadzafar2010@gmail.com